1987 was the first year in which The Global Footprint Network calculated Earth Overshoot Day – the day in the year on which humanity's resource consumption for the year exceeds the earth's capacity to regenerate those resources that year. In 1987 we were operating in overshoot for just 11 days. Last year, Earth Overshoot Day occurred on 13 August. In other words, for the rest of the year we are depleting Mother Nature's reserves to maintain our current diet, lifestyle, transport and leisure options.
While you may have reservations about these kinds of initiatives, they encourage speculation. Hence it is hardly surprising that the internet is rife with alarming predictions of scarcity of many of the resources on which our economy depends. Public debate tends to be dominated by concern about the oil and gas we use to meet our energy needs – so much so that other potentially scarce resources are often overlooked. This is unwise, say the authors of the KPMG report Getting a grip on resources, security of supply and biodiversity published in 2014. At least there are alternatives to traditional fossil fuel energy sources, such as wind, solar and geothermal energy. There are no substitutes for resources such as fresh water and agricultural land to produce food, both of which are in increasingly short supply. At present the only solution is to make more efficient use of the limited resources at our disposal and, above all, to ensure fairer distribution of resources.
When it comes to mining-related resources, such as iron, copper and zinc and the group of rare earth elements (which are not especially rare, but rarely occur in economically exploitable deposits), the issues are more complex. Again, alarmists are inclined to make dire predictions, says Ton Bastein, Programme Manager Resources at TNO, an institute that specialises in applied scientific research, and co-author of the book Resources for our Future. He himself is less pessimistic and does not anticipate an acute shortage in the case of most metals. Having said this, there are considerable uncertainties regarding economically exploitable reserves with geopolitical factors playing an increasingly dominant role.
The remaining lifespan of an economically exploitable reserve of ore or metals is usually expressed in terms of the Reserves-to-Production Ratio (R/P). A low number (such as less than 20 years of confirmed production at the current rate of consumption) is an indicator that the market could be destabilised relatively easily and that there needs to be activity within that market to ensure uninterrupted supply. However, the report Materials in the Dutch Economy - a vulnerability assessment, compiled by TNO at the request of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, states that many international experts do not consider this measure to be a relevant criterion. According to Ton Bastein this is because large mining companies are not inclined to invest the exploration that is essential for suspected deposits to be confirmed as reserves. Bastein: “Exploration for deposits of minerals is possibly even more complex and more expensive than exploration for reserves of oil and gas. So there is little investment in it, especially if an increase in proved reserves is unlikely to add to the market value of a company’s shares. Given that this is the case, many experts believe that the data published by the United States Geological Survey – the leading earth-science agency in the United States – is inaccurate and possibly even corrected for administrative purposes.”